- The 25/26 SportPesa League title permutations could go down to the wire, with AFC Leopards and Gor Mahia emerging as the two sides battling for the crown.
- SportPesa Blog takes a look at how soon Gor Mahia can clinch the title and the chances of AFC Leopards pulling off a late triumph.
- The two teams are separated by nine points, with Gor Mahia leading on 64 points and Ingwe second on 55.
Record champions Gor Mahia opened a nine-point gap in the 25/26 SportPesa League title race over the weekend after snatching a late 1-0 win over Kakamega Homeboyz at the Mumias Sports Complex.
In a match where Homeboyz nearly saw the visitors drop two crucial points, they blundered under pressure and it was one of their own who netted an own goal.
In the 94th minute, Peter Thiong’o, while attempting to clear Ebenezer Assifuah’s driven cross under pressure from Ebenezer Adukwaw ended up slotting the ball into his own net.
READ MORE: Kakamega Homeboyz own goal helps Gor Mahia go nine points clear in the SportPesa League
As a result, Gor, fresh from beating arch-rivals AFC Leopards 1-0 in the second leg of the Mashemeji Derby, extended their lead to nine points, edging closer to a record-extending 22nd league crown.
With less than five games to play, the SportPesa League title race is now a two-horse affair, and both rivals are chasing it hard. But how soon can Gor Mahia’s 22nd title arrive?
Or can AFC Leopards still work some magic and end their 28-year wait for a league title?
SportPesa Blog takes a look at all the permutations available and how the league could be decided sooner or later.
25/26 SportPesa League title permutations
How soon can Gor Mahia win the 25/26 SportPesa League title?
With a nine-point cushion, Gor Mahia have four matches remaining, offering 12 points, while Ingwe have a game in hand since they did not play in the round 30 fixture against Ulinzi Stars, who were occupied with FKF Cup duties.
As it stands, K’Ogalo need seven points from the available 12 to be crowned champions, which would put them on 71 points before facing Mara Sugar in their penultimate fixture.
If AFC Leopards win all their remaining five fixtures, they will reach 70 points, something Gor might have already achieved if they beat Kenya Police FC and Murang’a SEAL in their next two matches.
Thus, the trophy could comfortably be placed in Gor’s one hand because they definitely have a superior goal difference of 27 compared to Ingwe’s 14.
Heading into their second-last match on May 23, a single point will be enough to secure the title, before coronation in their final fixture against Nairobi United.
In essence, two wins and a draw could be all Charles Akonnor’s charges need to reclaim the title that slipped away to Kenya Police FC last season.
Are there any chances for AFC Leopards to win the title?
Yes, chances are there for Ingwe.
But the Mashemeji Derby hit them hard and has become a haunting memory. They will need magic, prayers and maximum effort in their final five matches to end their trophy drought.
Mathematically, for AFC Leopards to win the title, they must win all their remaining five fixtures to get to 70 points.
On that note, they will be hoping their rivals Gor Mahia drop points or get defeated in two of their matches.
If Gor win two of their remaining games, both sides could finish level on points, but Leopards would still need to overturn a significant goal difference deficit, requiring a substantial scoring run across those fixtures.
The other scenario: Gor Mahia lose two matches and draw the rest, landing on 66 points, while AFC Leopards win at least four of their matches (even if they lose one) to finish on 67 points, with tests against Ulinzi Stars, Mara Sugar, Kakamega Homeboyz, APS Bomet, and Bidco United awaiting them.
However, if Gor secure two wins and even a single draw, they would put the title beyond reach. For Leopards to stand a realistic chance, Gor would need to lose three matches or drop points consistently, while Ingwe maintain a flawless run.
AFC Leopards vs Gor Mahia Form and statistics
In terms of form this season, Gor Mahia have lost just four matches compared to six for their opponents, and both sides have tasted back-to-back defeats.
For Ingwe, that recently came via losses to Kenya Police FC and Gor, while K’Ogalo’s consecutive losses came through APS Bomet and also Ingwe.
On scoring, Ingwe have averaged one goal per match, finding the net 36 times and conceding 22, compared to Gor Mahia, who have averaged over 1.5 goals per match and conceded 19. Thus, K’Ogalo’s goal difference is a superior 27 versus Ingwe’s 14.
Gor have won 19 matches, held seven, and lost four, while Ingwe have won 16, held seven, and lost six.
Going by current form, goal difference heavily favors Gor Mahia in winning the title, compared to AFC Leopards, who must now chase victories and hope.
Have they won five consecutive matches this season? No. But they did string four successful wins earlier this year (vs Nairobi United, APS Bomet, Tusker, and Sofapaka), so it’s possible for them to keep the fire burning.
Hence, they could still dream of a 13th title while hoping Gor Mahia drop points as discussed.
Gor Mahia’s remaining fixtures
- Vs Kenya Police – Home
- Vs Murang’a SEAL – Away
- Vs Mara Sugar – Away
- Vs Nairobi United – Home
AFC Leopards’ remaining fixtures
- Vs Ulinzi Stars – Away
- Vs Mara Sugar – Home
- Vs Kakamega Homeboyz – Away
- Vs APS Bomet – Away
- Vs Bidco United – Home