- Kenya Lionesses have everything to fight for in the final leg of the 2026 HSBC SVNS 2 in Sao Paulo.
- The decisive third leg is scheduled for Saturday, March 28 – 29.
- The Lionesses head into this leg with only a faint glimmer of hope for World Championship Series qualification, currently sitting bottom of the standings with 22 points.
The women’s national rugby 7s side, Kenya Lionesses, will be taking center stage on March 28–29 knowing that anything less than a top three finish in Sao Paulo, Brazil will crush their dreams of qualifying for the HSBC SVNS 1 in 2027.
The Lionesses have had a rough run in the HSBC SVNS 2 since the first leg in Nairobi where they finished fifth on the log after securing just one victory, results that saw them scoop 12 points heading into the final two legs in South America.
Their South America outing got off to a rough start last weekend (March 21–22) in Montevideo, Uruguay. Despite securing one win just like in Nairobi, the Simon Odongo-led side felt the pressure at Estadio Charrua, managing only 10 points from the leg as they finished last of the six.
As a result, their standing has taken a hit. They now sit at the bottom in sixth place with 22 points heading into the decisive final leg where their fate will be sealed.
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Kenya Lionesses HSBC SVNS 2 Sao Paulo permutations
In this piece, SportPesa Blog breaks down all the possible permutations that Kenya Lionesses will be looking at in the final leg in Brazil if they are either to keep their SVNS 1 dream alive or risk being relegated next season.
Kenya Lionesses sit last with 22 points after two rounds, trailing leaders Argentina by 18 points. Argentina tops the pack with 40 points, while second- and third-placed South Africa and Spain have 34 points apiece.
China occupies the final qualification slot in fourth place with 28 points, just six ahead of Kenya in sixth and Brazil sits fifth level on 22 points with Kenya.
Kenya Lionesses cannot leapfrog the top three sides even if they finish as the mathematical difference will be insurmountable as any of Argentina, South Africa or Spain will get a minimum of ten points even if they end up at the bottom.
The maximum points Simon Odongo’s charges can bag is 20, bringing their total to 42. If Argentina finishes last, they will still have 50; if South Africa ends bottom they will be on 44 just like Spain.
But the possibility for the seemingly impossible comes in the fight for fourth place, where a glimmer of hope still flickers, ready to surprise the rugby world.
The Lionesses’ hopes will hinge on China’s results in this leg, and they have two main scenarios to work with.
The two teams are separated by just six points, which means if Kenya Lionesses can boost their confidence and clinch first place in this leg, something very achievable if they fix the mistakes from the first two rounds, they would finish with 42 points overall. If China ends up sixth, they would stay on 38 points.
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In another scenario, if Kenya finishes second and China ends up fifth, both sides would be tied on 40 points, with head-to-head results likely determining who advances.
A third-place finish for Kenya and a last-place finish for China would also leave both on 38 points. A third for Kenya and a fifth for China would keep Kenya in a tight spot, still fifth overall.
While these scenarios may seem slim, the Lionesses still have a fighting chance.
But Brazil, level on points with Kenya at 22, cannot be ruled out either. The Lionesses will need to win at least all their matches this weekend in Brazil and hope the results fall in line with their preferred scenarios.
Anything less will derail their historic ambitions and send them back to square one.
On the men’s side, Shujaa sit third overall with 32 points four clear of fourth-placed Uruguay and eight above fifth- and sixth-placed Canada and Belgium.
A top-four finish should keep them safe on the qualification path for the World Championship.
The schedule and fixtures for the Sao Paulo leg have been confirmed. Kenya Lionesses kick off their hopeful unbeaten campaign on Saturday, March 28, against table-toppers Argentina at 5:28 PM EAT.
Their next match is on the same day at 8:18 PM EAT, and they will wrap up day one with a clash against third-placed Spain at 11:05 PM EAT.
On Sunday, March 29, they will take on China at 6:06 PM EAT before closing out the leg against hosts Brazil at 10:02 PM EAT.
Once all three legs are wrapped up, the top four teams will join the top eight from the World Championship Series in their own three-leg event, while the bottom two will drop in the regional level for next season.
In the end, the top eight out of the 12 teams will lock in their spot in SVNS Division 1 for 2027, and the bottom four will drop to Division 2 for next season.
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Kenya 7s Schedule – HSBC SVNS 2 in Sao Paulo, Brazil (March 28–29, 2026)
Kick-off in East African Time (EAT)
Kenya Lionesses
Saturday, March 28
- Kenya Lionesses vs Argentina – 5:28 PM
- Kenya Lionesses vs South Africa – 8:18 PM
- Kenya Lionesses vs Spain – 11:05 PM
Sunday, March 29
- Kenya Lionesses vs China – 6:06 PM
- Kenya Lionesses vs Brazil – 10:02 PM
Shujaa
Saturday, March 28
- Shujaa vs Germany – 4:22 PM
- Shujaa vs Belgium – 7:12 PM
- Shujaa vs Canada – 10:21 PM
Sunday, March 29
- Shujaa vs USA – 5:44 PM
- Shujaa vs Uruguay – 8:34 PM